What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for May 2025?
Closed Jun 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained near historic lows in early 2024, but cracks are appearing in the labor market (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2025 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released (FRED). The May 2025 rate is scheduled to be released on 6 June 2025 (BLS - Release Schedule).
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The question closed "At least 4.2%, but less than 4.5%" with a closing date of 1 June 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.9% | 0% | |
| At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2% | 23% | |
| At least 4.2%, but less than 4.5% | 67% | |
| At least 4.5%, but less than 4.8% | 8% | |
| At least 4.8%, but less than 5.1% | 2% | |
| At least 5.1%, but less than 5.4% | 0% | |
| At least 5.4%, but less than 5.7% | 0% | |
| 5.7% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 54 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 351 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
