Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2025?
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNN, Naval News, Foreign Policy Research Institute). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones will count, but balloons will not count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | |
| No | 89% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 156 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 625 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
