Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will South Korea publicly announce that it has or will provide lethal weapons and/or ammunition to Ukraine before 1 April 2025?
Closed Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
As North Koreans troops join Russia's fight against Ukraine, South Korea is reportedly considering sending weapons to Ukraine (France 24, Korea Pro, Newsweek). South Korea has a policy of not supplying weapons to countries that are actively engaged in fighting (AP). For the purposes of this question, "lethal weapons and ammunition" mean instruments designed to be used in a way that is likely to cause death, and lethal weapons characterized as defensive in nature will count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | |
| No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 142 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 486 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
