Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2025, will Russia detonate a nuclear device inside of Russian territory or airspace?

Started Nov 15, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While Russia has stated that it will not conduct nuclear tests unless the US does so, concerns about nuclear saber-rattling amid the ongoing war in Ukraine persist (Newsweek, France 24). Russian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 351
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000815
2.
-0.000815
3.
-0.000815
4.
-0.000815
5.
-0.000815

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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