Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2025, will Russia detonate a nuclear device inside of Russian territory or airspace?

Started Nov 15, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

While Russia has stated that it will not conduct nuclear tests unless the US does so, concerns about nuclear saber-rattling amid the ongoing war in Ukraine persist (Newsweek, France 24). Russian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 9.96% -0.08% -1.44%
No 90.04% +0.08% +1.44%

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