Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?
Closed Jun 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Reports of sabotage operations in Europe by Russia have further inflamed tensions on the continent (NBC News, Yahoo [DPA International], US News & World Report). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (The Conversation).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 June 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | |
| No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 91 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 305 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
