The Economist asks:

In the current conflict in Ukraine, when will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended indefinite duration or an intended duration of at least 28 days?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closing Sep 29, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Despite various calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine, the fighting continues (Economist, MSN [Washington Post], AP, Newsweek). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire will take effect is immaterial. The intended duration of a ceasefire will be determined using credible, open-source reporting, and a qualifying intended duration must be agreed to at its inception (e.g., a 15-day ceasefire that is extended for another 15 days would not count). Whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Before 20 January 2025 2.12% -0.02% -0.66%
Between 20 January 2025 and 25 May 2025 27.41% -0.95% -1.83%
Between 26 May 2025 and 28 September 2025 25.23% +0.23% +0.56%
Not before 29 September 2025 45.24% +0.73% +1.93%

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