With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the role and capabilities of NATO, including defense spending, are in the spotlight (Economist, US News & World Report, NATO). The outcome will be determined using data from the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2025 released in 2025, including estimates, expected no later than mid-2025 (NATO, scroll to the bottom for reports by year, select the appropriate year, see download options at the bottom of the page and reference Table 3). In case of any ambiguity between the PDF and the spreadsheet downloads, figures per "Download the tables in Excel format" will be used. According to the June 2024 report, which included estimates for 2024 spending, 23 countries spent 2.0% or more of their real GDP on defense, up from 10 in 2023 (NATO - Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024), see Download options at bottom of page and reference Table 3). Please note that Iceland, while a member of NATO, has no armed forces and therefore no defense expenditures.

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NOTE 15 August 2025: Inquiries submitted to NATO regarding the timing of the release of the resolving information have thus far gone unanswered. We will continue to reach out.

The question closed "26 or more" with a closing date of 27 August 2025.

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