What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 31 March 2025?
Started
Nov 29, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 31, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Closed Mar 31, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 March 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 22 November 2024, the yield was 4.41%.
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The question closed "At least 4.20%, but less than 4.50%" with a closing date of 31 March 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.40% | 1% | |
| At least 2.40%, but less than 2.70% | 1% | |
| At least 2.70%, but less than 3.00% | 1% | |
| At least 3.00%, but less than 3.30% | 0% | |
| At least 3.30%, but less than 3.60% | 0% | |
| At least 3.60%, but less than 3.90% | 1% | |
| At least 3.90%, but less than 4.20% | 15% | |
| At least 4.20%, but less than 4.50% | 77% | |
| At least 4.50%, but less than 4.80% | 4% | |
| At least 4.80%, but less than 5.10% | 0% | |
| 5.10% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 52 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 176 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 302 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 517 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
