Which of the following US stock market indices will perform best between 21 January 2025 and 18 July 2025?

Started Dec 06, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 17 July 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance by dividing the closing values for 18 July 2025 by the closing values for 21 January 2025 and subtracting one, respectively. Once the 21 January 2025 closing values for the indices are available, they will be added here.
  • DJIA (Google Finance) [Closing value 21 January 2025: 44,025.81]
  • NASDAQ Composite (Google Finance) [Closing value 21 January 2025: 19,756.78]
  • Russell 2000 (Google Finance) [Closing value 21 January 2025: 2,317.97]
  • S&P 500 (Google Finance) [Closing value 21 January 2025: 6,049.24]
In the event of a tie, the index that performed best through 17 July 2025 will be considered to have performed best.


The question closed "NASDAQ Composite" with a closing date of 18 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 1%
NASDAQ Composite 88%
Russell 2000 0%
S&P 500 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 457
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.532258
3.
-0.514483
4.
-0.452615
5.
-0.299774

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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