Before 1 September 2025, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started Dec 06, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion of their country and continues to attack Russian territory, concerns persist that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (AP, US News & World Report). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 142
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 320
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000247
2.
-0.000247
3.
-0.000247
4.
-0.000247

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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