Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the closing value of the S&P 500 Index fall below 4,860.09 before 1 July 2025?
Closed Jun 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 5 December 2024, the closing value was 6,075.11, and 4,860.09 represents a 20% fall from the closing value on 5 December 2024.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 69 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 445 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
