Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US fall below 6.00% before 4 July 2025?
Closed Jul 03, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Despite interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates have remained elevated in the second half of 2024 (NBC News, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended 2 July 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 19 December 2024, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.72%.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 59 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 229 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
