Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the Federal Reserve announce an upper limit of the US federal funds target range at or below 4.00% before 19 June 2025?

Started Dec 24, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 18, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected at its December 2024 meeting, but its own projections for cuts in 2025 were reduced for the end of the year (WGBH, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 17 June 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using statements released by the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve). As of the launch of this question, the Federal Reserve has four Federal Open Market Committee meetings scheduled between launch and 18 June 2025. As of 23 December 2024, the upper limit was 4.50% (FRED).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 19 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 200
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.037656
2.
-0.0367
3.
-0.036406
4.
-0.028235
5.
-0.025876

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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