Will any of the 100 largest commercial banks in the US fail in 2025?

Started Dec 27, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
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For the purposes of this question, the 100 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 100 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 30 September 2024 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "September 30, 2024"). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 234
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.082957
3.
-0.081871
4.
-0.079765
5.
-0.079009

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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