Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 November 2025?
Closed Oct 02, 2025 04:01AM UTC
The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and appropriations as of the launch of this question were due to expire after 14 March 2025 (Congressional Research Service, National Association of Counties). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation for more than 24 hours. An appropriation expiration lasting less than one day will not count (e.g., CBS News). A partial shutdown (i.e., impacting some but not all departments) will count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | |
| No | 10% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 101 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 502 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |