Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 November 2025?

Started Jan 03, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2025 04:01AM UTC

The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and appropriations as of the launch of this question were due to expire after 14 March 2025 (Congressional Research Service, National Association of Counties). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation for more than 24 hours. An appropriation expiration lasting less than one day will not count (e.g., CBS News). A partial shutdown (i.e., impacting some but not all departments) will count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90%
No 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 101
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 502
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.358761
2.
-1.144155
3.
-1.061001
4.
-1.00289
5.
-0.995904

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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