In Louisiana v. Callais and/or Robinson v. Callais, will the Supreme Court rule that Louisiana's congressional district map creating two majority-Black congressional districts (aka "S.B. 8 map") is illegal and/or unconstitutional?

Started Jan 10, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 27, 2025 02:30PM UTC

After various rounds of judicial and legislative proceedings, the Louisiana state legislature adopted Senate Bill 8 (S.B. 8), which created two congressional districts where Black residents were a majority of the population (NBC News, NPR, Louisiana State Legislature - S.B. 8). A group of Louisiana voters, including Phillip Callais, sued the state, asserting that race had unconstitutionally predominated in the drawing of one of the congressional districts (AP, Callais v. Landry - Complaint 31 January 2024). The district court agreed with the voters, ruling that S.B 8 violates the Equal Protection Clause of the US Constitution and thus prohibiting Louisiana from using that map in the future, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (Callais v. Landry - Injunction 30 April 2024, SCOTUSblog - Louisiana v. Callais, NBC News). The Supreme Court consolidated Louisiana v. Callais and Robinson v. Callais for consideration, the latter being different litigation over the same issue. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides these cases without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 42%
No 58%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.330304
2.
-0.314186
3.
-0.242777
4.
-0.202317
5.
-0.202016

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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