As the US continues to produce crude oil at record levels, Donald Trump is expected to push for greater production in his second term (US News & World Report, Yahoo [Bloomberg], EIA - Short-Term Economic Outlook December 2024). The question will be suspended on 26 December 2025 and the outcome determined using the "Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day by week "End Date") as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) between and including the weeks ending 4 April 2025 and 26 December 2025 (EIA, see also "DOWNLOAD" above the chart on the right). Between 5 April 2024 and 27 December 2024, the average daily US field production of crude oil was 13,307.7 tb/d. An xlsx file with historical data and a chart may be downloaded by clicking here: Download.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "At least 13,000 tb/d, but less than 13,600 tb/d" with a closing date of 27 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.