Will the US' national military forces attempt to execute a military strike within the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Iran before 18 July 2025?

Started Jan 17, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 21, 2025 11:30PM UTC

President Biden reportedly discussed plans for the US to attack Iran before Trump's second inauguration if it believed the country was at risk of developing nuclear weapons (Daily Beast, News Nation). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either the weapon detonates or discharges on or over Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, US national military forces exclude US intelligence services (e.g., CIA). Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard would be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 38%
No 62%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 125
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 393
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.474691
2.
-1.465368
3.
-1.426421
4.
-1.394691
5.
-1.229894

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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