The Economist asks:
How many Registered Syrian Refugees will be in Turkey (aka Türkiye) as of 4 September 2025?
Closed Sep 04, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, there is a question of when and at what pace the approximately three million refugees in Turkey may return home (Economist, AP, The Globalist). The question will be suspended on 3 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Registered Syrian Refugees" on its "Syria Regional Refugee Response" page for Turkey (UNHCR). As of 31 December 2024, a total of 2,901,478 registered Syrian refugees were in Turkey. If data for 4 September 2025 are not available, the total for the first date thereafter will be used for resolution.
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The question closed "At least 2.4 million, but fewer than 2.7 million" with a closing date of 4 September 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 600,000 | 0% | |
| At least 600,000, but fewer than 900,000 | 0% | |
| At least 900,000, but fewer than 1.2 million | 0% | |
| At least 1.2 million, but fewer than 1.5 million | 0% | |
| At least 1.5 million, but fewer than 1.8 million | 0% | |
| At least 1.8 million, but fewer than 2.1 million | 4% | |
| At least 2.1 million, but fewer than 2.4 million | 7% | |
| At least 2.4 million, but fewer than 2.7 million | 78% | |
| At least 2.7 million, but fewer than 3.0 million | 6% | |
| At least 3.0 million, but fewer than 3.3 million | 3% | |
| 3.3 million or more | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 128 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 622 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
