In Fuld v. PLO and/or US v. PLO, will the Supreme Court rule that the Promoting Security and Justice for Victims of Terrorism Act (PSJVTA) violates the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment?

Started Feb 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 20, 2025 02:30PM UTC

After previous attempts to sue the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for damages related to terrorist attacks in and around Israel failed on jurisdictional grounds, Congress passed the PSJVTA, which purports to solve the issue of personal jurisdiction (Congressional Research Service, Arab Center Washington DC, Cornell - Personal Jurisdiction). The district court ruled that the PSJVTA's attempt to deem the PLO as having consented to jurisdiction violated the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment, and the Second Circuit agreed (Oyez, Second Circuit Decision, Reuters). The Supreme Court consolidated Fuld v. PLO and US v. PLO for consideration, the latter being different litigation over the same issue. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides these cases without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 26%
No 74%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.373727
2.
-0.371038
4.
-0.351206
5.
-0.091542

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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