Started Feb 14, 2017 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?

Many migrants and refugees are still making the dangerous trip across the Mediterranean to Europe (Washington Post, World Health Organization Europe). This question will be resolved using the data available on (UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be scored based on the data available on 31 January 2018.

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If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Bashar al-Assad will cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017 or on whether the French Army or Foreign Legion will deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq..

Name Probability
Less than 100,000 0%
Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive 100%
More than 300,000 but less than 500,000 0%
Between 500,000 and 750,000, inclusive 0%
More than 750,000 0%

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