Will the US capacity utilization rate for iron and steel products reach or exceed 74.0% before 2026?

Started Feb 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 02:00PM UTC

The Trump administration reintroduced tariffs on steel and aluminum with the stated aim of protecting domestic production from unfair trade practices (White House, Recycling Today). The US capacity utilization rate is the percentage of productive capacity being used in the economy (Investopedia - Capacity Utilization Rate). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2026 (FRED, hover your cursor over the chart for data). The data for a month as first reported will count, and subsequent revisions to past months are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the capacity utilization rate was last above 74% in September 2023, when it was 74.3144%.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 72%
No 28%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.092332
2.
-0.091751
3.
-0.091751
4.
-0.077115
5.
-0.076278

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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