Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Muhammad Yunus flee Bangladesh or cease to be its head of government before 1 July 2025?

Started Feb 28, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

After widespread protests in the summer of 2024 led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as "Chief Advisor" to head an interim government that would transition Bangladesh to constitutional, democratic governance (Al Jazeera, MSN [Reuters]). If Yunus (while head of government) flees Bangladesh, he will be deemed to have ceased to be the head of government, and whether he has fled Bangladesh will be determined using credible, open-source reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.02447
3.
-0.018953
4.
-0.018454
5.
-0.017673

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username