Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Muhammad Yunus flee Bangladesh or cease to be its head of government before 1 July 2025?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After widespread protests in the summer of 2024 led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as "Chief Advisor" to head an interim government that would transition Bangladesh to constitutional, democratic governance (Al Jazeera, MSN [Reuters]). If Yunus (while head of government) flees Bangladesh, he will be deemed to have ceased to be the head of government, and whether he has fled Bangladesh will be determined using credible, open-source reporting.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 74 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |