Before 1 January 2026, will US federal legislation become law that sets the federal estate tax exemption for individuals for 2026 higher than or equal to what it was in 2025?

Started Mar 14, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2025 09:45PM UTC

As part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), the base level of the federal estate tax exemption was increased from $5 million to $10 million for 2018 through 2025, with inflation adjustments (Merrill, 26 USC §2010, Cornell - Estate Tax). President Trump and Congress are working to extend various provisions of the TCJA (AP). If the TCJA expires without being replaced and no other changes are made, the base level is scheduled to expire and will revert back to $5 million (adjusted for inflation), which would be approximately $7 million (Citizens Bank). Please note that the question is concerned with the actual total exemption in 2026, not merely the base level. For 2025, the federal estate tax exemption for individuals was $13,990,000 (IRS - Estate Tax).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 4 July 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 94%
No 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 15
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013439
2.
-0.013439
4.
-0.009011
5.
-0.006621

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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