Before 1 January 2026, will US federal legislation setting a maximum state and local tax (SALT) deduction for individuals for 2026 become law?
Closed Jul 04, 2025 09:45PM UTC
As of 14 March 2025, the maximum SALT deduction for individuals was $10,000 as set by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), but that limit is scheduled to expire on 31 December 2025 (Tax Foundation - SALT Deduction, 26 USC §164). President Trump and Congress are working to extend various provisions of the TCJA (AP). If the TCJA expires without being replaced and no other changes are made, there will be no maximum SALT deduction for 2026 (Forvis Mazars).
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The question closed "Yes, a deduction of more than $20,000, but finite" with a closing date of 4 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, a deduction of $5,000 or less | 0% | |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $5,000, but at most $10,000 | 0% | |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $10,000, but at most $15,000 | 3% | |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $15,000, but at most $20,000 | 11% | |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $20,000, but finite | 71% | |
| No | 15% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 15 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 88 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
