The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) conducts the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) each month to measure US consumer expectations on a variety of matters, including commodity prices, unemployment, and credit access (NY Fed). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the NY Fed (NY Fed - Debt Delinquency Expectations). In the event of ambiguity due to rounding on the chart, downloaded data will be used for resolution (click "DOWNLOADS" button for options, click "Chart Data [EXCEL]," and see the “Delinquency expectations” tab). In February 2025, the average probability that consumers will not be able to make a debt payment in the following three months was 14.56%.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.

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