Before 31 July 2025, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?
Closed Jul 31, 2025 07:01AM UTC
As the Federal Reserve contemplates future interest rate cuts in 2025, the central bank announced on 19 March 2025 that it would reduce the level of assets on its balance sheet as part of its program of monetary "quantitative tightening," from a total of $60 billion per month to a total of $40 billion per month starting in April 2025 (Yahoo [Bloomberg], MSN [Reuters], Investopedia, Congressional Research Service). The question will be suspended on 29 July 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets, beginning on 1 April 2025, was $40 billion each month, $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 19 March 2025). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $40 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 31 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, it will increase the total cap | 0% | |
| Yes, it will decrease the total cap | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 13 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 50 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |