What will be the midpoint of the US federal funds target range at the end of 2025?
Closed Dec 31, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using the midpoint of the latest federal funds target range. As of 4 April 2025, the target range was set at 4.25% to 4.50%, so the midpoint was 4.375% (Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement 19 March 2025). The Federal Open Market Committee releases quarterly projections on the midpoint of the federal funds target range (Federal Reserve, see "Projection Materials").
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The question closed "At least 3.50%, but less than 3.75%" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.75% | 1% | |
| At least 2.75%, but less than 3.00% | 1% | |
| At least 3.00%, but less than 3.25% | 1% | |
| At least 3.25%, but less than 3.50% | 1% | |
| At least 3.50%, but less than 3.75% | 96% | |
| At least 3.75%, but less than 4.00% | 1% | |
| At least 4.00%, but less than 4.25% | 1% | |
| At least 4.25%, but less than 4.50% | 1% | |
| 4.50% or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 14 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 147 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 464 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
