Will the US president invoke the Insurrection Act before 20 January 2026?
Closed Jan 20, 2026 08:01AM UTC
On 20 January 2025, President Trump signed an executive order that, among other things, called for the secretaries of defense and homeland security to report on whether the Insurrection Act of 1807 should be invoked at the southern US border (White House, Newsweek). The Insurrection Act was last invoked to quell riots in Los Angeles after police were acquitted in the beating of Rodney King (NBC News).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | |
| No | 93% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 95 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 479 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
