Will Israel publicly announce that all persons captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 have either been freed or are dead before 8 October 2025?
Closed Oct 08, 2025 07:01AM UTC
As of early April 2025, Hamas was still holding dozens of hostages who were captured in Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023 (NY Post, AP). As of 7 April 2025, Israel stated that 24 hostages were believed to still be alive, including 22 Israelis, one Thai, and one Nepali (Times of Israel). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead will count as to those particular hostages.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | |
| No | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 85 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 239 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
