As of early April 2025, Hamas was still holding dozens of hostages who were captured in Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023 (NY Post, AP). As of 7 April 2025, Israel stated that 24 hostages were believed to still be alive, including 22 Israelis, one Thai, and one Nepali (Times of Israel). Israel announcing that a hostage or hostages are presumed dead will count as to those particular hostages.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.