In the wake of a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, the Indian Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) announced on 23 April 2025 that "The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism" (Indian Ministry of External Affairs, NDTV, BBC, UN - Treaty). India announcing a partial observance of the Treaty as to specific provisions or bodies of water will not count. India must fully return to the status quo of Treaty observance as of 21 April 2025 to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Not before 12 November 2025" with a closing date of 12 November 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.