What will be the net percentage of domestic banks that will have tightened standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms in the past three months, according to the Federal Reserve's "July" 2025 SLOOS survey?

Started May 16, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The Federal Reserve completes a Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS, sometimes SOSLP) at least four times a year, which asks bank leaders about changes to credit standards over the preceding three months (Federal Reserve, Investopedia - SLOOS). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using survey results data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) for the Federal Reserve's first release dated for the third quarter, which covers April through June and is expected to be released in July 2025 (FRED). In the April 2025 report (aka "Q2 2025" that covers January through March), the Fed reported that 18.5% of "Large and medium" respondents said they were tightening standards for C&I loans (Federal Reserve - SLOOS April 2025, see the "2025:2" row in table 1 panel 1 under the "Large and medium" column, FRED, see Q2 2025). Please note that a negative number represents a net loosening of standards.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 0.0%, but less than 15.0%" with a closing date of 4 August 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than -15.0% 2%
At least -15.0%, but less than 0.0% 5%
At least 0.0%, but less than 15.0% 9%
At least 15.0%, but less than 30.0% 22%
At least 30.0%, but less than 45.0% 25%
45.0% or more 37%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 7
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 13
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.326679
2.
-0.239876
4.
0.026613
5.
0.027147

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username