Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will President Donald Trump attend the NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands, scheduled for 24-25 June 2025?

Started May 19, 2025 03:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 24, 2025 07:01AM UTC

US President Trump has called for NATO member states to boost their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, an increase from the 2% that many member states failed to meet prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (CNBC, AP). NATO is scheduled to hold an annual summit in June 2025, which are typically attended by NATO member state heads of state and government (NATO). If the summit is cancelled or postponed, the question will close "No." Virtual attendance will not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 24 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 91%
No 9%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 237
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.145839
2.
-0.140839
3.
-0.140839
4.
-0.114033
5.
-0.109561

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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