Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will Israel publicly announce that a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip has begun?
Closed Oct 10, 2025 09:00AM UTC
Israel has begun increasing attacks in Gaza as fears of starvation increase and Israel limits access to the territory (AP, BBC). Whether the ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) will not count.
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The question closed "Between 1 September 2025 and 30 November 2025" with a closing date of 10 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 July 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 1 July 2025 and 31 August 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 1 September 2025 and 30 November 2025 | 84% | |
| Not before 1 December 2025 | 16% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 55 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 315 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
