Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will Israel publicly announce that a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip has begun?
Started
May 19, 2025 03:30PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Israel has begun increasing attacks in Gaza as fears of starvation increase and Israel limits access to the territory (AP, BBC). Whether the ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) will not count.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before 1 July 2025 | 2.00% | 0% | -2.00% | -5.00% |
Between 1 July 2025 and 31 August 2025 | 29.00% | -1.00% | -3.00% | +9.00% |
Between 1 September 2025 and 30 November 2025 | 25.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% | 0% |
Not before 1 December 2025 | 44.00% | 0% | +4.00% | -4.00% |