What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 30 September 2025?
Closed Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The difference between interest rates on longer-term debt and shorter-term debt have been used historically to forecast, among other things, the rate of economic growth (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 30 September 2024, the spread was 0.15%.
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The question closed "Higher than 0.50%, but at most 0.75%" with a closing date of 30 September 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| -0.25% or lower | 0% | |
| Higher than -0.25%, but at most 0.00% | 0% | |
| Higher than 0.00%, but at most 0.25% | 2% | |
| Higher than 0.25%, but at most 0.50% | 18% | |
| Higher than 0.50%, but at most 0.75% | 69% | |
| Higher than 0.75%, but at most 1.00% | 5% | |
| Higher than 1.00%, but at most 1.25% | 2% | |
| Higher than 1.25%, but at most 1.50% | 2% | |
| Higher than 1.50% | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 53 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 279 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
