Between 7 June 2025 and 10 December 2025, in how many US states will US military personnel have been deployed in federal service without the agreement of the governor of that state?

Started Jun 10, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 11, 2025 08:01AM UTC

On 7 June 2025, President Trump called "at least 2,000 National Guard personnel" into federal service to protect federal facilities and federal functions in California and without agreement with the governor of the state to do so (CBS News, Whitehouse.gov - 7 June 2025 Presidential Memorandum). Federalizing a state's national guard without agreement from a governor is rare, but not unprecedented (USA Today). For the purposes of this question, "military personnel" include members of the federal armed forces and the national guard under federal command. A state will count if military personnel under federal command pursuant to President Trump's 7 June 2025 memorandum & any subsequent orders are deployed in that state. A deployment of any duration will count. Actions taken by federal officials to whom authority has been delegated that result in a deployment will count. Any deployments to the District of Columbia will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "3 or 4" with a closing date of 11 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
1 1%
2 13%
3 or 4 75%
5, 6, or 7 10%
8 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 259
Average for questions older than 6 months: 472
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.382752
2.
-0.290664
3.
-0.246187
4.
-0.219448
5.
-0.162667

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username