Will the US' national military forces attempt to execute a military strike within the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Iran before 23 December 2025?
Closed Dec 23, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The US struck at least three Iranian nuclear facilities in late June 2025 and have indicated no intent to continue such strikes unless Iran attacks (USA Today, Newsweek, NBC News). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either the weapon detonates or discharges on or over Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, US national military forces exclude US intelligence services (e.g., CIA). Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard would be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 23 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | |
| No | 95% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 92 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 277 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |