Will the US' national military forces attempt to execute a military strike within the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Iran before 23 December 2025?

Started Jun 23, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 23, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The US struck at least three Iranian nuclear facilities in late June 2025 and have indicated no intent to continue such strikes unless Iran attacks (USA Today, Newsweek, NBC News). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either the weapon detonates or discharges on or over Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, US national military forces exclude US intelligence services (e.g., CIA). Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard would be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 23 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 277
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.138088
2.
-0.136749
4.
-0.13655
5.
-0.133124

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username