Before 23 December 2025, will the US accuse Iran of executing an attack on the US or the armed forces of the US?
Closing Dec 23, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The US struck at least three Iranian nuclear facilities in late June 2025, after which the US told the Iranians to not attempt a counterattack (USA Today, Newsweek, NBC News). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either 1) the weapon detonates or discharges on or over the United States or a site/facility where the armed forces of the US are based, or 2) the weapon is intercepted or destroyed while en route to the US or a site where the armed forces of the US are located. For the purposes of this question, the US includes the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and all its overseas territories. A cyberattack alone will not count, and both the attack and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. Actions executed by Iranian proxy forces (e.g., Hezbollah) will only count if A) the putative attack occurs in the US, and B) the US accuses Iran of ordering, supporting, or directing the proxy forces to execute the attack in the US. No attacks in the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Israel will count. Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard will be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting, though a social media post must be corroborated by credible, open-source reporting to count. An announcement must be made on behalf of the US by a person who is officially authorized to speak on behalf of the US to count.
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