Will ByteDance announce an agreement to sell TikTok to an entity or group that is not considered a "foreign adversary" before 19 September 2025?

Started Jun 27, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 19, 2025 07:01AM UTC

On 19 June 2025, President Trump again extended the deadline to 17 September 2025 for the social media platform TikTok to be sold or face being banned from operating in the United States (AP, White House - Executive Order 14310). The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which was signed into law on 24 April 2024, bans certain applications from being controlled by groups in "foreign adversary" countries, including China, which is where ByteDance is based (Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, 10 USC §4872, see (f)(2)). An agreement that divests foreign adversary entities from majority control of TikTok will count, and the date the sale will close is immaterial.

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NOTE 16 September 2025: "Framework" and "agreement" are not synonymous. ByteDance must announce that an agreement for the sale of TikTok has been reached.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 19 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 18%
No 83%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 122
Average for questions older than 6 months: 472
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.089665
2.
-0.087193
3.
-0.082312
4.
-0.069774
5.
-0.067465

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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