Helmut_K asks:

When will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel?

Started Jul 03, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

As the dust settles from Israeli military successes against Iran and several of its proxies, attention is again turning to the potential for broader diplomatic recognition of Israel in the Middle East (Times of Israel, Foreign Affairs, MSN [Wall Street Journal]). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., NY Times, CNN, NPR, CNN). The question is concerned with the date of the announcement by Saudi Arabia, irrespective of when the normalization will occur. Conditional announcements (e.g., if Israel does X, if the US does Y) will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 November 2025 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 1 November 2025 and 28 February 2026 4.00% 0% -1.00% -1.00%
Between 1 March 2026 and 30 June 2026 11.00% 0% +2.00% +1.00%
Not before 1 July 2026 85.00% 0% -1.00% 0%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username