At close of business on 10 December 2025, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 October 2025?

Started Aug 01, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 10, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 9-10 December 2025.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Lower" with a closing date of 10 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower 96%
Same 4%
Higher 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 136
Number of Forecasts 123
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 368
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.303892
2.
-0.294159
3.
-0.27038
4.
-0.153689
5.
-0.152045

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username