Before 11 December 2025, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?

Started Aug 08, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 29, 2025 06:00PM UTC

The Federal Reserve has not changed the pace of "run off" of assets on its balance sheet since it announced a monthly reduction of assets from $60 billion per month to $40 billion per month starting 1 April 2025 (CNBC, Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 19 March 2025, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 9 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $40 billion each month, $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 30 July 2025). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $40 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes, it will decrease the total cap" with a closing date of 29 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, it will increase the total cap 9%
Yes, it will decrease the total cap 64%
No 28%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 10
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 23
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile.

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.551584
2.
-0.270143
3.
-0.193352
4.
-0.165549
5.
-0.153627

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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