Before 11 December 2025, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?
Closed Oct 29, 2025 06:00PM UTC
The Federal Reserve has not changed the pace of "run off" of assets on its balance sheet since it announced a monthly reduction of assets from $60 billion per month to $40 billion per month starting 1 April 2025 (CNBC, Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 19 March 2025, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 9 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $40 billion each month, $5 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 30 July 2025). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $40 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, it will decrease the total cap" with a closing date of 29 October 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, it will increase the total cap | 9% | |
| Yes, it will decrease the total cap | 64% | |
| No | 28% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 10 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 23 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |