When will US military personnel cease to be deployed in federal service in Los Angeles County, California, pursuant to President Trump's 7 June 2025 memorandum & any related subsequent orders?

Started Aug 18, 2025 04:15PM UTC
Closed Nov 18, 2025 08:01AM UTC

On 7 June 2025, President Trump called "at least 2,000 National Guard personnel" into federal service to protect federal facilities and federal functions in California (ABC7, Whitehouse.gov - 7 June 2025 Presidential Memorandum, LACounty.gov - Maps and Geography). As of the second week of August 2025, approximately 300 guardsmen remain (CBS News). For the purposes of this question, "military personnel" include members of the federal armed forces and the national guard under federal command. The question will close upon either A) deployed military personnel ceasing to be under federal command pursuant to President Trump's 7 June 2025 memorandum & any related subsequent orders, or B) the removal of all military personnel deployed pursuant to President Trump's memorandum & any related subsequent orders. Other personnel in Los Angeles County are immaterial (e.g., San Clemente Island). If a court grants injunctive relief that would block enforcement of Trump's order and that granting of relief is not stayed by a higher court within 48 hours, the question will close as of the relief taking effect.

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The question closed "Not before 18 November 2025" with a closing date of 18 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 17 September 2025 0%
Between 17 September 2025 and 17 October 2025 0%
Between 18 October 2025 and 17 November 2025 4%
Not before 18 November 2025 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137
Number of Forecasts 114
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014699
3.
-0.014699
4.
-0.013032
5.
-0.011365

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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