When will the level of employment layoffs and discharges as a percentage of total employment separations reach or exceed 40%?
Closing Jun 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
The labor market in the US has seen softening in 2025 (MarketWatch, Yahoo [Reuters]). Along with job openings, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports job separations and categorizes them based on the circumstances surrounding the separations (Investopedia - JOLTS, BLS - JOLTS Release July 2025). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). As of the launch of this question, the level of employment layoffs and discharges as a percentage of total employment separations in December 2024 was 32.841% (shown as 0.32841). Note that the linked FRED chart automatically calculates the percentage from two data sets, "Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm, Level in Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted (JTSLDL)" and "Total Separations: Total Nonfarm, Level in Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted (JTSTSL)." Data for August 2025 are immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between September 2025 and November 2025 | 5.60% | 0% | 0% | +5.40% |
| Between December 2025 and February 2026 | 7.60% | 0% | 0% | +4.70% |
| Between March 2026 and May 2026 | 8.10% | 0% | 0% | +0.40% |
| Not before June 2026 | 78.70% | 0% | 0% | -10.50% |