What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 30-year bond on 19 December 2025?
Started
Sep 12, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Yields on Japanese 30-year bonds have soared in 2025 as the Bank of Japan tries to navigate its monetary policy after years of experimentation (CNBC, Yahoo [Financial Post]). The question will be suspended on 18 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 30-year bond on 19 December 2024 was 2.2758%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.500% | 0.20% | 0% | -0.30% | -4.20% |
| At least 2.500%, but less than 2.750% | 0.60% | 0% | -0.90% | -0.10% |
| At least 2.750%, but less than 3.000% | 4.70% | -1.00% | -4.80% | -5.60% |
| At least 3.000%, but less than 3.250% | 57.40% | -4.00% | -9.40% | -6.50% |
| At least 3.250%, but less than 3.500% | 27.00% | +1.00% | +8.10% | +10.00% |
| At least 3.500%, but less than 3.750% | 9.10% | +3.50% | +6.60% | +6.10% |
| At least 3.750%, but less than 4.000% | 0.60% | +0.30% | +0.50% | +0.30% |
| At least 4.000%, but less than 4.250% | 0.30% | +0.20% | +0.20% | +0.10% |
| 4.250% or more | 0.10% | 0% | 0% | -0.10% |