What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 30-year bond on 19 December 2025?
Closed Dec 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Yields on Japanese 30-year bonds have soared in 2025 as the Bank of Japan tries to navigate its monetary policy after years of experimentation (CNBC, Yahoo [Financial Post]). The question will be suspended on 18 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to "1Y" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 30-year bond on 19 December 2024 was 2.2758%.
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The question closed "At least 3.250%, but less than 3.500%" with a closing date of 19 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 2.500% | 0% | |
| At least 2.500%, but less than 2.750% | 0% | |
| At least 2.750%, but less than 3.000% | 0% | |
| At least 3.000%, but less than 3.250% | 11% | |
| At least 3.250%, but less than 3.500% | 87% | |
| At least 3.500%, but less than 3.750% | 2% | |
| At least 3.750%, but less than 4.000% | 0% | |
| At least 4.000%, but less than 4.250% | 0% | |
| 4.250% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 16 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 72 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |
