The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US between September 2025 and November 2025?
Closed Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Firearm manufacturer stocks jumped in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination on 10 September 2025 (USA Today, YouTube - Forbes Breaking News, Yahoo [The Center Square], MSN [Seeking Alpha]). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data for September, October, and November 2025 as reported by the FBI once November 2025 data are first available, expected in December 2025 (FBI). Between September 2024 and November 2024, the FBI reported a total of 7,133,588 firearm background checks, or 7.133588 million.
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The question closed "At least 6.0 million, but fewer than 6.5 million" with a closing date of 1 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 6.0 million | 4% | |
| At least 6.0 million, but fewer than 6.5 million | 16% | |
| At least 6.5 million, but fewer than 7.0 million | 44% | |
| At least 7.0 million, but fewer than 7.5 million | 24% | |
| At least 7.5 million, but fewer than 8.0 million | 10% | |
| At least 8.0 million, but fewer than 8.5 million | 1% | |
| At least 8.5 million, but fewer than 9.0 million | 1% | |
| At least 9.0 million, but fewer than 9.5 million | 0% | |
| At least 9.5 million, but fewer than 10.0 million | 0% | |
| 10.0 million or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 43 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 117 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
