The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US between September 2025 and November 2025?
Closing Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Firearm manufacturer stocks jumped in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination on 10 September 2025 (USA Today, YouTube - Forbes Breaking News, Yahoo [The Center Square], MSN [Seeking Alpha]). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data for September, October, and November 2025 as reported by the FBI once November 2025 data are first available, expected in December 2025 (FBI). Between September 2024 and November 2024, the FBI reported a total of 7,133,588 firearm background checks, or 7.133588 million.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 6.0 million | 5.00% | +2.19% | +2.69% | +1.00% |
| At least 6.0 million, but fewer than 6.5 million | 14.00% | +0.44% | +1.87% | +4.00% |
| At least 6.5 million, but fewer than 7.0 million | 38.00% | -1.50% | -0.25% | +7.00% |
| At least 7.0 million, but fewer than 7.5 million | 36.00% | -1.00% | -3.31% | 0% |
| At least 7.5 million, but fewer than 8.0 million | 5.00% | 0% | -0.75% | -8.00% |
| At least 8.0 million, but fewer than 8.5 million | 2.00% | +0.31% | +0.25% | -2.00% |
| At least 8.5 million, but fewer than 9.0 million | 0% | -0.25% | -0.31% | -1.00% |
| At least 9.0 million, but fewer than 9.5 million | 0% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -1.00% |
| At least 9.5 million, but fewer than 10.0 million | 0% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0% |
| 10.0 million or more | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |