Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 June 2026, will Israel and Hamas either sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Gaza or begin a ceasefire agreed to by both with an intended indefinite duration?
Closed Oct 13, 2025 09:00PM UTC
International calls for a ceasefire in Gaza have gone unanswered as Israel begins operations in Gaza City to root out what remains of Hamas (AP, Anadolu Agency, Al Jazeera, France 24). A ceasefire agreement must be acknowledged by Hamas and Israel to count. A ceasefire (i.e., a cessation of all hostilities) of indefinite duration will count, and any agreement or ceasefire must not exclude any part of Israel, including territory seized in the Six-Day War (i.e., Gaza, Golan Heights, and West Bank). Whether the agreement or ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. If Hamas ceases to exist, it will be deemed to have surrendered, which will be deemed to be an agreement for an end to the current conflict.
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NOTE 30 September 2025: Whether Hamas ceases to exist will be determined using credible, open-source reporting, and a mere claim by Israel alone that Hamas has been destroyed will not count.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 84% | |
| No | 16% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 37 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 70 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |