Kinnaj asks:
Before 25 December 2025, will the Brazilian National Congress adopt amnesty legislation that will have the effect of granting amnesty for former President Jair Bolsonaro?
Closing Mar 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
In September 2025, Bolsonaro was convicted for plotting a coup in Brazil and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison (BBC). Members of Brazil's National Congress are considering legislation that would grant Bolsonaro and others amnesty for their actions in the planned coup, which has drawn protests and a veto promise from President Lula (Folha de São Paulo, Al Jazeera, AP, Chamber of Deputies - News [in Portuguese], Chamber of Deputies - PL 2162/23 [in Portuguese]).
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NOTE 16 October 2025: A mere shortening of a sentence of prison or confinement will count.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, and it will become law without being vetoed by the President of Brazil | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.50% |
| Yes, but it will not become law due to a veto by the President of Brazil | 6.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -0.50% |
| Yes, and it will become law after the National Congress overrides a veto by the President of Brazil | 4.00% | 0% | 0% | -0.10% |
| No | 90.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% | +1.10% |