Israeli forces moved into the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) Zone created between Syria and Israel after the 1973 Yom Kippur War after the collapse of the Assad regime, and the new government in Syria is reportedly in talks with Israel to establish a new framework between the two countries (Daily Sabah, Anadolu Agency, UNDOF). Israel must publicly announce or acknowledge that all IDF ground forces have left the whole of the UNDOF Zone to close the question. "All IDF ground forces" includes all individuals who are under IDF command, excluding those captured, missing, or remaining in the zone for reasons other than IDF deployment.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.